WEF: Disinformation, Societal Fragmentation Top Global Risks as Environmental Threats Intensify | Sustainable Brands (2024)

'Global Risks Report 2024' calls for greater cooperation between the public and private sectors to focus global cooperation on rapidly building guardrails for the most disruptive emerging risks.

The latest edition of the World Economic Forum’s annual Global RisksReport argues that cooperation on urgent global issues could be inincreasingly short supply — highlighting the need for new approaches toaddressing risks.

Drawing on nearly two decades of original risks-perception data, Global RisksReport 2024,released Wednesday, warns of a landscape in which progress in human developmentis being chipped away slowly — leaving states and individuals vulnerable to newand resurgent risks. Against a backdrop of systemic shifts in global powerdynamics, climate, technology and demographics, global risks are stretching theworld’s adaptative capacity to its limit.

Two-thirds of global experts anticipate a multipolar or fragmented order to takeshape over the next decade, in which middle and great powers contest and set —but also enforce — new rules and norms.

The 2024 report is released just ahead of the WEF’s AnnualMeeting(Jan. 15-19) in Davos — the theme of which this year is, appropriatelyenough, “Rebuilding Trust.” Produced in partnership with Zurich InsuranceGroup and Marsh McLennan — the report draws on the views of over 1,400global risks experts, policymakers and industry leaders surveyed in September2023. Results highlight a predominantly negative outlook for the world in theshort term that is expected to worsen over the long term. While 30 percent ofglobal experts expect an elevated chance of global catastrophes in the next twoyears, nearly two-thirds expect this in the next 10.

“An unstable global order characterized by polarizing narratives and insecurity,the worsening impacts of extreme weather, and economic uncertainty are causingaccelerating risks — including misinformation and disinformation — topropagate," said WEF Managing Director SaadiaZahidi. "World leaders must cometogether to address short-term crises as well as lay the groundwork for a moreresilient, sustainable, inclusive future."

Greatest global risks

Rise of disinformation and conflict

Concerns over a persistent cost-of-living crisis and the intertwined risks ofAI-drivenmisinformation and disinformation, and societalpolarizationdominated the risks outlook for 2024. The nexus between falsified informationand societal unrest will take center stage amid elections in several majoreconomies that are set to take place in the next two years; interstate armedconflict is a top-five concern over the next two years. With several liveconflicts under way, underlying geopolitical tensions and corroding societalresilience are creating conflict contagion.

Economic uncertainty and development in decline

The coming years will be marked by persistent economic uncertainty and growingeconomic and technological divides. Lack of economic opportunity is ranked sixthin the next two years. Over the longer term, barriers to economic mobility couldbuild — locking out large segments of thepopulationfrom economic opportunities. Conflict-prone or climate-vulnerable countries mayincreasingly be isolated from investment, technologies and related job creation.In the absence of pathways to safe and secure livelihoods, individuals may bemore prone to crime, militarization or radicalization.

Planet in peril

Environmental risks continue to dominate the risks landscape over alltimeframes. Two-thirds of global experts are worried about extreme weatherevents in 2024. Extreme weather, critical change to Earth systems, biodiversityloss and ecosystem collapse, natural-resource shortages and pollution representfive of the top 10 most severe risks perceived to be faced over the next decade.However, expert respondents disagreed on the urgency of risks posed —private-sector respondents believe that most environmental risks willmaterialize over a longer timeframe than civil society or government, pointingto the growing risk of getting past a point of no return.

Responding to risks

The report calls on leaders to rethink action to address global risks —especially urgent considering the tepid climateagreementreached at COP28 last month — and recommends focusing global cooperation onrapidly building guardrails for the most disruptive emerging risks. However, italso explores other types of action that need not be exclusively dependent oncross-border cooperation — such as shoring up individual and state resiliencethrough digital-literacy campaigns on misinformation anddisinformation,or fostering greater research and development on climatemodelingand technologies with the potential to speed up the clean-energy transition — withboth public and private sectors playing a role.

“The world is undergoing significant structural transformations with AI, climatechange, geopolitical shifts and demographic transitions — 91 percent of riskexperts surveyed express pessimism over the 10-year horizon,” said JohnScott, Head of SustainabilityRisk at Zurich Insurance Group. “Known risks are intensifying and new risks areemerging — but they also provide opportunities. Collective and coordinatedcross-border actions play their part, but localizedstrategiesare critical for reducing the impact of global risks. The individual actions ofcitizens, countries and companies can move the needle on global risk reduction —contributing to a brighter, safer world.”